Boys 5A State XC Championship Prediction
I went with a baker’s dozen runner here because my simulated times had a bunch of runners grouped together along 8-13. What initially stands out is the fact the top-3 runners from Region 3 sit at the top. They also happen to be the top-3 returners from a year ago. Fitzgerald (2nd), Huntress (6th) and Asbill (5th) have shown they belong and their performances a week ago at the regional meet only emphasize that fact. Malan was 12th a year ago and Arceneau was 9th.
Right now, Fitzgerald looks to be the one to beat. He placed third at the UIL State Track and Field Meet in the 3200m last year and is the leading returner from that race a year ago. Huntress is the top 800m runner in the state, having placed second last year at State. He also edged Fitzgerald in the 1600m at both Regionals and State a year ago.
I would not put it past Asbill to try and send it early after what transpired at Regionals, but am not sure if he can shake everyone over the long haul.
| RUNNER | TEAM |
|---|---|
| Aiden Fitzgerald | Friendswood |
| Colby Huntress | Austin Anderson |
| Jaxon Asbill | Dayton |
| Tyler Connelly | Aledo |
| Nathan Salinas | Mission Sharyland |
| Juan Gallegos | Grapevine |
| Matthew Morales | Georgetown |
| Andrew Malan | Frisco Lebanon Trail |
| Aaron Nava | Weslaco East |
| Alexander Nava | Weslaco East |
| Tristan Arceneau | Lucas Lovejoy |
| Joseph Reid | Lucas Lovejoy |
| Jack Gurwitz | McAllen |
The team race should be very exciting. Defending champion, Lovejoy, is down the list with Grapevine back at the top. Weslaco East has a very consistent squad. It would not surprise me if McAllen sneaked into the top-2 either. As usual, this race will come down to how the 4-5 runners finish and who can pass the most runners in the final 400m.
| TEAM | SCORE |
|---|---|
| Grapevine | 98 |
| Weslaco East | 102 |
| McAllen | 130 |
| Dallas Wilson | 168 |
| Georgetown East View | 175 |
| Lucas Lovejoy | 179 |